The upcoming Arab Summit is scheduled to take place in Manama on Thursday, May 16, 2024. The summit serves as a reaffirmation of the regularity of the summits' periodicity, which had faltered after the 2019 Tunisia Summit. However, the Algiers Summit in November 2022 and the Jeddah Summit in May 2023 confirmed the revival of the summits' periodicity. Bahrain has requested to host the 2024 summit, while Iraq has expressed interest in hosting the 2025 summit.

The Manama Summit is unique in that it follows not one, but two previous summits: the regular Jeddah Summit and the Riyadh Emergency Arab-Islamic Summit. The latter was held in November 2023 to address the ongoing Palestinian-Israeli confrontation that began on October 7, 2023. Arab loyalists, who are committed to the security, stability, and development of the Arab nation, have high hopes for the Arab summits in tackling the challenges that hinder the achievement of these goals. In this article, I aim to provide an overview of the expectations of Arab public opinion and Arab elites regarding the summit hosted by the Bahraini capital. I will define these expectations in response to three key challenges: effectiveness, follow-up, and the future.

The Effectiveness Challenge:

The Jeddah (May 2023) and Riyadh (November 2023) summits aimed to address the challenges faced by Arab and Islamic nations at the time of their meeting. These summits made a series of decisions to provide effective responses. One of the key decisions in both summits was the reaffirmation of the Arab position on the Palestinian issue. The Riyadh Arab Summit, known as the Islamic Emergency, was unique in that it directly addressed the situation resulting from the October 7, 2023 operation and the Israeli response to it. The summit's decisions used strong diplomatic language to address the Palestinian issue and its latest developments, particularly the ongoing confrontation in the Gaza Strip. The decisions emphasized that the Palestinian issue is central and that there can be no peace without a solution. The proposed solution was the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, encompassing both Gaza and the West Bank, while noting that there is no single solution for Gaza.

Furthermore, the summit strongly condemned the Israeli aggression in all its dimensions, particularly the displacement of the population of Gaza from the north to south and the claims of their displacement outside the Gaza Strip. The summit stressed the immediate need for the displaced individuals to return to their homes and areas. Additionally, it called upon the international community to take immediate steps to halt the killing and targeting of civilians.

In this context, the Riyadh Arabic Islamic Council has called on the Security Council to issue a resolution for an immediate ceasefire, curb the occupation's practices in Gaza, break the siege on the Gaza Strip, and bring in comprehensive aid convoys. It has stressed the need to release all prisoners, detainees, and civilians, and called on all countries to stop exporting weapons to Israel. Additionally, it has called on the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court and the United Nations Human Rights Council to activate efforts to investigate Israeli war crimes. The summit has also supported the process of requesting an advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice on occupation crimes. Furthermore, it has called on the international community to place settler associations and organizations in the West Bank on terrorist lists and emphasized the necessity of respecting the historical status of Islamic and Christian religious sanctities. It has specifically highlighted that the Al-Aqsa Mosque is a special place of worship for Muslims.

However, there has been some limited progress in fulfilling certain demands from the Riyadh Summit. Several countries, including the Netherlands, Canada, Italy, Germany, and the United States, have partially halted their arms sales to Israel, leading to intense debates between supporters and opponents of Israel's policies. Moreover, the International Court of Justice held a session last February to seek an advisory opinion on the practices of the Israeli occupation. Furthermore, the International Criminal Court has made significant strides in its investigations, with reports suggesting possible legal actions against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his Minister of Defense, his Chief of Staff, as well as the US threats against the Court.

This means that the Manama Summit needs to find additional tools, besides quiet diplomacy, to enforce its urgent demands. These demands include a ceasefire to halt the mass killing of Palestinians, as well as allowing the return of the displaced and the entry of aid. It is also important for the summit to endorse the decisions of countries that have ceased selling weapons to Israel, either partially or entirely, and work towards expanding the scope of these decisions to include more countries. Additionally, the summit should provide support to the International Criminal Court in dealing with the pressures and threats it faces. It should also coordinate with the UN Human Rights Council regarding the situation in Gaza and support the International Court of Justice in considering South Africa's lawsuit against Israel or seeking an advisory opinion on the Israeli occupation.

The Follow-up Challenge:

The Emergency Summit held in Riyadh has identified three mechanisms to ensure the implementation of its decisions. These mechanisms include the formation of a ministerial committee, the establishment of legal and media monitoring units, and follow-up by the Secretaries-General of the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. 

This is a commendable step as it addresses the historical weakness in following up on Arab decisions, often resulting in a lack of implementation. Among these mechanisms, the most significant one is the formation of a committee consisting of the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Palestine, Qatar, Turkey, Indonesia, Nigeria, and any other interested countries. The committee will work alongside the secretaries-general of the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. Its primary objective is to take immediate action to halt the war and exert pressure to initiate a political process that aligns with approved international references, ultimately leading to peace.

This summit has also commissioned the two general secretariats to establish two legal monitoring units. These units will document Israeli crimes since October 7 and prepare legal arguments about Israel's violations. Each unit will submit a report 15 days after its establishment for presentation to the Councils of Foreign Ministers of the two organizations. Afterward, the units will submit reports on a monthly basis.

Additionally, the summit has commissioned the secretariats of the two organizations to establish two media monitoring units to document the crimes of the occupation and publish the results of their work on digital platforms. This is a crucial step, as the use of legal and media weapons in the current confrontation provides tremendous positive potential from the Arab perspective given how it exposes Israel's inhumane practices to the world. Finally, the summit has commissioned the secretaries-general of the two organizations to follow up and present the results to the next session of their councils.

The Ministerial Follow-up Committee recently toured the capitals of the major countries that are permanent members of the Security Council. However, this tour did not yield any tangible results in terms of stopping the aggression at that time. I believe that the conditions are now much better prepared to continue this work and push for practical results, which is due to some important shifts that have occurred in global public opinion, including within the United States. These shifts have been reflected in the indications of a change in the official positions of many countries.

The upcoming Manama Summit holds great importance in providing impetus to the work of this committee. It should also offer directives that take advantage of the developments that have moved world public opinion towards supporting the Palestinian cause. Moreover, the committee should present an integrated vision to the concerned authorities in the countries it will contact. This vision should aim to achieve a ceasefire and initiate steps towards a political solution.

As for the legal and media monitoring Units, it is undoubtedly positive that the Secretary-General of the Arab League issued a decision five days after the summit to establish these units. However, I noticed that they were attached to the structure of the Palestine sector and the occupied territories, which is logical, of course. However, I feared that the units would face the same fate as the Arab Peace and Security Council, which was unable to fulfill its responsibilities due to limited resources and a lack of personnel.

The Manama Summit calls for a serious follow-up on the work of its units, which can have a highly positive impact given the current circumstances. Israel is under mounting pressure in the court of world public opinion and international justice institutions. It is crucial for the summit to send a message of support to the International Criminal Court, which is facing threats due to reports of potential arrest warrants that may impact the Israeli Prime Minister, Minister of Defense, and Chief of Staff.

The Arab Future Challenge:

The Arab future is faced with numerous challenges that require urgent consideration at the Manama Summit. Two of the most pressing challenges are the current confrontation in Gaza, and the internal conflicts in several Arab countries. 

As for the first challenge, and in addition to the previously mentioned urgent mission of accelerating the achievement of a ceasefire and addressing the associated urgent humanitarian tasks, there is another crucial mission for the post-war period that must be accomplished. The war must come to an end, and this day is likely not far away. If not in weeks, then in a few months. The level of violence, killing, and destruction has reached its peak, and the Palestinians' steadfastness and ability to inflict losses on Israel cannot be sustained for much longer.

Following the developments in the internal situation in Israel and the international arena, it would be unacceptable for us to welcome the day after the end of the Gaza war with the continued division among the Palestinians. I understand the difficulty of restoring Palestinian national unity in an effective manner due to various considerations that cannot be mentioned at this time. However, the Manama Summit calls for a different approach to pressure the Palestinian factions to restore their unity. It is important to note that the issue is not just about applying pressure, but also about formulating balanced formulas that are accepted by all parties, with sufficient guarantees from influential Arab parties.

The second challenge pertains to the ongoing internal conflicts in a significant number of Arab countries. These conflicts pose a threat to the existence of national states and undermine their stability. Moreover, they have disastrous humanitarian and economic consequences, while also creating opportunities for external infiltrations. Given the gravity of the situation, it is imperative for the Manama Summit to prioritize the restoration of strong and cohesive national states. The summit should strive to find balanced solutions that are acceptable to all parties involved. Ultimately, the success of the summit will depend on its ability to fulfill its responsibilities and tasks in the most effective manner possible.